A recent report suggests that around 15 million Americans may be at risk of developing heart failure. This study, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on December 17, introduces new equations that help scientists predict an individual’s likelihood of developing this condition more accurately.
Heart failure happens when the heart weakens and can’t keep up with the body’s demands. People with this condition often feel tired, experience leg swelling from fluid build-up, and have trouble breathing. Currently, about 6.7 million Americans are affected by heart failure.
In the past, doctors struggled to estimate how many Americans might develop heart failure. However, in 2023, the American Heart Association introduced the PREVENT equations, designed to better predict heart failure by including various indicators of kidney, social, and metabolic health, and excluding race from the calculations.
Using these new equations, researchers gathered data from 4,872 people aged 30 to 79, representing the adult U.S. population. Participants provided details about their sex, age, systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), use of blood pressure medication, diabetes status, smoking habits, and kidney health.
After analyzing the data, researchers estimated that 15 million people have at least a 10% chance of developing heart failure in the next decade. They also noted that approximately 6.6 million Americans are at risk for atherosclerosis, which is the build-up of plaque in the arteries.
Among those at higher risk for heart failure, 62% are between 70 and 79 years old, which matches other existing data. Despite older adults often having obesity and diabetes under control, these risk factors are significant. Obesity, high blood pressure, and elevated HbA1c levels—an indicator of diabetes—are common risk factors, especially among Hispanic adults, where diabetes is more prevalent.
Smoking also increases heart failure risk by damaging the heart and blood vessels, leading to more plaque in the arteries. Although race wasn’t a direct factor in the PREVENT equations, Black Americans are disproportionately represented among those at higher risk for heart failure, likely due to adverse social health determinants.
Other factors that can increase heart failure risk include coronary artery disease, heart attacks, sedentary lifestyles, unhealthy diets, exposure to toxic substances, family history, sleep apnea, and excessive alcohol consumption.
This report, while insightful, has limitations. It relies on self-reported data, which can be biased, and the researchers couldn’t track risk scores over time to confirm accuracy or examine different types of heart failure.
Experts agree on the importance of managing modifiable risk factors such as obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure. Hypertension, affecting nearly half of American adults, is a key area of focus. Treating high blood pressure could potentially cut heart failure risk in half. Supportive measures like family involvement, better education, and accessible medical care are crucial to help individuals make necessary lifestyle changes and prevent heart failure.
